What Were the Actual Odds for the 2017 NBA Championship Winners?
When I look back at the 2017 NBA Championship, I can't help but marvel at how the Golden State Warriors defied conventional basketball wisdom. As someone who's spent years analyzing championship odds, I've never seen a team so thoroughly dominate both the statistical projections and the actual court performance. Before the season even started, most sportsbooks had the Warriors pegged at around 2-1 odds to win it all - numbers that seemed almost disrespectful to the rest of the league until you considered what they'd just accomplished.
The Warriors' journey to their 2017 championship reminds me of that incredible TNT Tropang Giga game I witnessed in the Philippine Basketball Association, where the grand slam-seeking team opened with a dominant 61-41 lead at halftime against the Beermen. That's exactly what the Warriors did throughout their playoff run - they built insurmountable advantages early, then held on through the inevitable counter-punches. Both teams demonstrated that championship basketball isn't just about talent; it's about maintaining composure when the pressure mounts.
What made the Warriors' odds so fascinating was their historic regular season. They finished with a 67-15 record, which doesn't quite reach their legendary 73-win season but proved more than enough to secure the top seed in the Western Conference. I remember crunching the numbers that April and realizing they had about an 85% chance of making the Finals based on their playoff positioning and opponent matchups. Their offensive rating of 115.6 was simply absurd - the highest in NBA history at that point.
The Cavaliers, their eventual Finals opponent, presented an interesting case study in championship probability. Despite LeBron James' greatness, most models gave them only about a 25% chance against the Warriors in a potential Finals matchup. The sportsbooks were even more pessimistic, installing Cleveland as +210 underdogs before the series began. Having studied championship teams across decades, I believed the Cavaliers' path relied entirely on their ability to create defensive disruptions that simply never materialized.
Watching Kevin Durant seamlessly integrate into the Warriors' system was like witnessing basketball perfection. His playoff performance - averaging 28.5 points on 55% shooting - made the Warriors nearly impossible to defend. I've never seen a team with so many scoring options that also played such disciplined defense. Their net rating of +16.8 during those playoffs still boggles my mind when I look back at the data.
The Finals themselves played out like most experts predicted, though the 4-1 margin surprised some observers who expected more resistance from Cleveland. Game 3 provided the Cavaliers' best opportunity, where they actually held a six-point lead with three minutes remaining before the Warriors' championship DNA took over. That's the moment I knew the series was over - when a team can flip the switch like that in crunch time, they're operating on a different level entirely.
Reflecting on the betting markets throughout that season, the Warriors consistently defied normal probability curves. By the time the playoffs began, their championship odds had shrunk to -250 at most books, meaning you'd need to risk $250 just to win $100. Those are numbers we typically only see in massive mismatches, not NBA championships. Yet the Warriors made those odds look justified with every passing round.
The financial aspect of championship betting always fascinates me. If you'd placed a $100 bet on the Warriors before the season started, you would have netted about $180 in profit - not bad for what felt like the safest bet in sports at the time. Compare that to the Cavaliers, where the same $100 pre-season wager would have returned roughly $650 had they pulled off the upset. The risk-reward calculus clearly favored Golden State throughout.
What many casual observers miss when analyzing championship odds is how much they fluctuate during the season. The Warriors actually saw their odds lengthen slightly after losing to Chicago in early March, creating what I thought was a perfect buying opportunity. Championship teams always hit rough patches - it's how they respond that defines their legacy. Golden State responded by winning 15 of their final 16 regular season games.
The statistical models developed by sites like FiveThirtyEight gave the Warriors a 70% chance of winning the championship entering the playoffs. I remember thinking that seemed conservative given how they'd dominated the league. Their probability peaked at 93% after going up 3-0 in the Finals - numbers that reflect just how thoroughly they controlled the series from start to finish.
Looking back, the 2017 Warriors represent what happens when championship-caliber talent meets perfect situational fit. Their odds weren't just about having better players - they were about having the right players in the right system at the right time. As someone who's analyzed championship probability for fifteen years, I can confidently say we may never see another team with preseason odds that short for a very long time. They didn't just win the championship - they redefined what championship basketball looks like in the modern era.